A paired comparison experiment for gathering expert judgment for an aircraft wiring risk assessment

Wire failure in aircraft can be attributed to several factors and the assessment of the risk of wire failure is becoming an increasingly important task. This paper will discuss the results of an actual experiment to use the paired-comparison technique for expert judgment to develop a relationship for the probability of wire failure as a function of influencing factors in an aircraft environment. The reasons for using this technique are two-fold. First, the failure probability depends on many variables including wire gauge, vibration, environmental condition etc. In addition, the wire failure data is sparse and fitting this data to a complex failure function is a nontrivial task that may involve a host of assumptions that may not be provable. . We describe a method for using actual failure data and the results from a paired comparison to populate the model parameters. In the approach, paired comparison data from select environments is used to obtain failure rate estimates for the candidate environments. Next, a functional relationship for wire failure as a function of the environments is constructed using a proportional hazards model. A regression model is fit from the failure rate estimates to the environmental variables and is used as an estimate of the failure response surface. This technique is being investigated as a means to generate failure rates for an Electrical Wiring Interconnection System Risk Assessment software tool currently being developed for the FAA Tech Center.